Revista Egitania Sciencia - Volume 7 | ARTICLE

Title: APPLYING THE BOX JENKINS METHODOLOGY TO TOURIST SEARCH IN LITHUANIA

Author: Maria Manuela Gomes Ferreira (maria.gomes.ferreira@hotmail.com) e Paula Odete Fernandes (pof@ipb.pt)

Publication: Revista Egitania Sciencia - Volume 7

Abstract:
The goal of the present research is to develop a model and apply it to sensitivity studies in order to predict tourism demand in Lithuania. In this way, we used the Box-Jenkins methodology applying to the time series of tourism: Monthly Guest Nights in Hotels registered in Lithuania. The analysis of the output forecast data of the selected SARIMA (0, 2, 1) (0, 1, 1) model showed a reasonably close result compared to the target data. In other words, the model produced a highly accurate forecast. Therefore it can be considered adequate for the purpose of prediction in the reference time series.

Keywords: Tourism; Tourism Demand; Box-Jenkins Methodology; ARIMA Models; Forecasting.




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